Bankruptcy forecast of ades issuers 2018-2022: comparison of method accuracy and implications of results
Abstract
This research aims to compare the level of precision of four insolvency forecasting models, namely the Grover, Springate, and Zmijewski models to forecast the probability of insolvency of ADES listed companies engaged in the food and beverage sector listed on the IDX. The source used is the company's financial statements during the period 2018-2022. After carrying out calculations with the four models, a comparison is made to see the difference in results between models from year to year. The study results indicate that there is an inequality of results between the Grover model and Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski to predict the insolvency of ADES issuers. The Grover model prediction results only produce bankruptcy conditions in 2018, while for 2019 to 2022 it is normal so that it has the highest precision of 80%, followed by the Springate and Zmijewski models with 60% precision, and the Altman Z-Score with 20% precision. In this case, the performance improvements made by the company since 2019 are accommodated by the Grover Model while the other models only accommodate this several years later. The Revised Altman model appears to be the most conservative in providing bankruptcy predictions so that it is more likely to produce bankruptcy predictions even though there have been improvements in company performance for several years. The results of the analysis provide lessons regarding the validity of the model and the level of conservativeness of the model in accommodating performance improvements made by different issuers.
Downloads
References
Admin. (2019). Lanjutkan Langkah Efisiensi, ADES Berusaha Perbaiki Kinerja Tahun Ini. IPOTNews.
Admin. (2023a). Financial Statement 1Q 2023 of ADES. IPOTNews.
Admin. (2023b). Financial Statements Full Year 2023 of ADES. IPOTNews.
Admin. (2024). Kena FCA ADES Pertimbangkan Opsi Stock Split Saham. IPOTNews.
Aini, S. N., Saptantinah, D., & Harimurti, F. (2020). Analisis Ketepatan Model Altman, Zmijewski, Grover dan Springate dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Sistem Teknologi Informasi, 16(1), 62–73.
Akbar, R., & Ridwan, R. (2019). PENGARUH KONDISI KEUANGAN PERUSAHAAN, UKURAN PERUSAHAAN, PERTUMBUHAN PERUSAHAAN DAN REPUTASI KAP TERHADAP PENERIMAAN OPINI AUDIT GOING CONCERN PADA PERUSAHAAN PERTAMBANGAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2017. In Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Akuntansi (Vol. 4, Issue 2, pp. 286–303). LPPM Unsyiah. https://doi.org/10.24815/jimeka.v4i2.12239
Arti, Y., & Ovami, D. C. (2022). Analisis Perbandingan Model Z Altman dan Model the Grover Dalam Mengukur Kesehatan Perusahaan Food and Beverages di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Multidisiplin Madani, 2(2), 765–778. https://doi.org/10.54259/mudima.v2i2.432
Artini, N. L. P. S., & Ida Bagus Putra Astika. (2024). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Altman, Springate, dan Zmijewski pada Perusahaan Sektor Consumer Cyclicals. E-Jurnal Akuntansi, 34(3), 9659–9673. https://doi.org/10.24843/EJA.2024.v34.i03.p08
Ayuningtyas, D. (2019). Penjualan ADES Turun Kok Laba Bisa Naik 39%. CNBC Indonesia.
Cahya, A. P. (2011). Model Prediksi Financial Distress: Studi pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sektor Konsumsi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. JIMFEB Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Universitas Brawijaya, 4(3), 410–419.
Diyani, L. A., & Rahman, H. A. (2022). Analisis Keuangan dan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Akibat Pandemi Covid-19. In Jurnal Akuntansi Keuangan dan Bisnis (pp. 411–420). Politeknik Caltex Riau. https://doi.org/10.35143/10.35143/jakb.v15i1.5326
Fitri, A. N. (2022). Akasha Wira International (ADES) Absen Bayarkan Dividen Tahun Ini. Business Insights.
Hagai Solaiman, K. (2021). Analisis Komparatif Laporan Keuangan PT Akasha Wira International Tbk. (ADES) dengan Industri Food and Beverages yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014-2019. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sistem Informasi, 2(3), 259–277. https://doi.org/10.31933/jemsi.v2i3.377
Hidayat, A. (2019a). Efisiensi Berhasil, Pendapatan ADES Turun tapi Laba Bisa Dikerek. Business Insights.
Hidayat, A. (2019b). Laba Akasha Wira International (ADES) Tumbuh 28% di Kuartal I 2019. Kontan.Co.Id.
Hidayat, A. (2019c). Produsen Air Minum ADES Pompa Kinerja dengan Efisiensi. Business Insights.
Martini, R., Raihana Aksara, R., Rachma Sari, K., Zulkifli, Z., & Hartati, S. (2023). Comparison of Financial Distress Predictions with Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover Models. Golden Ratio of Finance Management, 3(1), 11–21. https://doi.org/10.52970/grfm.v3i1.216
Minsya. (2024). PT Akasha Wira International Tbk (ADES): Profil dan Sejarah. Syariah Saham.
Nany, M., & Pertiwi, Y. (2022). Analisis Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan yang Melakukan Akuisisi di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Sosio E-Kons, 14(3), 274. https://doi.org/10.30998/sosioekons.v14i3.14257
Prasetianingtias, E., & Kusumowati, D. (2019). Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski Dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Perpajakan, 5(1), 1–3. https://doi.org/10.26905/ap.v5i1.3072
Primasari, N. S. (2018). ANALISIS ALTMAN Z-SCORE, GROVER SCORE, SPRINGATE, DAN ZMIJEWSKI SEBAGAI SIGNALING FINANCIAL DISTRESS (Studi Empiris Industri Barang-Barang Konsumsi di Indonesia). Accounting and Management Journal, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.33086/amj.v1i1.70
Putri, S. M. (2023). Analisis Resiko Kebangkrutan Pt Superkrane Mitra Utama Dengan Metode Z Score Dan Zmijewski Periode Tahun 2017-2019. In BISMA : Business and Management Journal (Vol. 1, Issue 3, pp. 23–29). Kalimasada Group. https://doi.org/10.59966/bisma.v1i3.518
Reza, M. J., Pagalung, G., & Damayanti, R. A. (2023). Bankruptcy Prediction With the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover Models. Contemporary Journal on Business and Accounting, 3(02), 118–135. https://doi.org/10.58792/cjba.v3i02.40
Rinofah, R., Sari, P. P., & Juliani, T. (2021). Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan terhadap Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sub Sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi Makanan dan Minuman yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2016 - 2020. In Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah (Vol. 4, Issue 3, pp. 726–744). Institut Agama Islam Nasional Laa Roiba Bogor. https://doi.org/10.47467/alkharaj.v4i3.719
Setyaningrum, K. D., Atahau, A. D. R., & Sakti, I. M. (2020). ANALISIS Z-SCORE DALAM MENGUKUR KINERJA KEUANGAN UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19. In Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Politala (Vol. 3, Issue 2, pp. 74–87). Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut. https://doi.org/10.34128/jra.v3i2.62
Soedarsa, H. G., Indrayenti, I., & Apriyanto, N. M. O. (2019). ANALISIS MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE DALAM MENGUKUR POTENSI KEBANGKRUTAN PERUSAHAAN (STUDI EMPIRIS PADA PERUSAHAAN INDUSTRI BARANG KONSUMSI YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2013 – 2017). In Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan (Vol. 10, Issue 2, p. 28). Universitas Bandar Lampung Publication Center. https://doi.org/10.36448/jak.v10i2.1287
Supitriyani, S., Astuti, A., & Azwar, K. (2022). Implementation of Springate, Altman, Grover and Zmijewski Models in Measuring Financial Distress. International Journal of Trends in Accounting Research, 3(1), 001–008. https://doi.org/10.54951/ijtar.v3i1.169
Wahidah, A. N., & Fikri, M. (2024). Prediction of Financial Distress Levels in State-owned Cipta Karya Companies using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski Models. COSTING: Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 7, 9091–9100.
Wahyuningtyas, E. T., & Fatmawati, S. (2021). DAMPAK RASIO KEUANGAN DAN PERTUMBUHAN PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP FINANCIAL DISTRESS MELALUI ANALISA SPRINGATE, ZMIJEWSKI, GROVER DAN ALTMAN Z-SCORE. In Accounting and Management Journal (Vol. 5, Issue 2, pp. 56–66). Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Surabaya. https://doi.org/10.33086/amj.v5i2.2489
Zulkarnain Zulkarnain, & Wuri Mirawati. (2019). Karakteristik Dewan Direksi dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan. Cakrawala Repositori IMWI, 2(2), 72–81. https://doi.org/10.52851/cakrawala.v2i2.31
